Not So Bold Predictions 2: New Hampshire Boogaloo

Continuing a series, at least through New Hampshire.

FWIW, I wrote these up last night for my brother’s pick ’em. You can find him on twitter @naterub and ask him if they were in last night 😛

1. Trump 24%
2. Rubio 19%
3. Cruz 15%
4. Kasich 12%
5. Bush 7%
6. Christie 6%
7. Fiorina 5%
8. Carson 2%
9. SMOD 1 vote.

Sanders 55%
Hillary 45%

My thoughts: I’m counting on MWR to deliver me my 1 SMOD vote, (pllllllleeeeeeeeaaaaasssssseeee).

I think Trump underperforms again. My guess represents the lower end of 538’s prediction in the 80% confidence interval. He’s improved his ground game some, but he still doesn’t know how to do it. But Primaries are easier than cacuauses to cover for a bad ground game.

I’m actually thinking Rubio isn’t that hard hit by his “Marco Roboto” mess. Voters just don’t care.

Carson needs to go after this. Sadly so does Fiorina. Less sadly Christie, who I don’t see gaining any traction. He missed his time. And running as a “Law and Order” candidate just isn’t resonating these days.

I’m waiting to see results of NV, SC and FL. But if this keeps up, given the new rules on proportional delegate allotment, a brokered convention is in the works. Although a Rubio/Cruz unity ticket would be both interesting and unstoppable.

4 comments to “Not So Bold Predictions 2: New Hampshire Boogaloo”
  1. From the looks of things with 9% reporting, Trump won it with 34% and Kasich is in a strong second. I was kind of hoping Christie pulled ahead of Rubio…hate that smarmy bastahd…reminds me of Lindsey Graham.

  2. I’m willing to concede that I far underestimated how little ground game would matter (or how much Trump changed his. I can’t really tell which.)
    I should have taken into account NH’s independent streak for Kasich.

    But overall I wasn’t too far off, for a gut feeling prediction.

  3. Well, the field is narrowing with Christie and Fiorina dropping out.

    Trump is in my neck o the woods tonight at Clemson University. I didn’t go because of other obligations, besides, probably would have been in the nosebleed section of Garrison Arena.

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