Continuing a series, at least through New Hampshire.
FWIW, I wrote these up last night for my brother’s pick ’em. You can find him on twitter @naterub and ask him if they were in last night 😛
1. Trump 24%
2. Rubio 19%
3. Cruz 15%
4. Kasich 12%
5. Bush 7% …
6. Christie 6%
7. Fiorina 5%
8. Carson 2%
9. SMOD 1 vote.
My thoughts: I’m counting on MWR to deliver me my 1 SMOD vote, (pllllllleeeeeeeeaaaaasssssseeee).
I think Trump underperforms again. My guess represents the lower end of 538’s prediction in the 80% confidence interval. He’s improved his ground game some, but he still doesn’t know how to do it. But Primaries are easier than cacuauses to cover for a bad ground game.
I’m actually thinking Rubio isn’t that hard hit by his “Marco Roboto” mess. Voters just don’t care.
Carson needs to go after this. Sadly so does Fiorina. Less sadly Christie, who I don’t see gaining any traction. He missed his time. And running as a “Law and Order” candidate just isn’t resonating these days.
I’m waiting to see results of NV, SC and FL. But if this keeps up, given the new rules on proportional delegate allotment, a brokered convention is in the works. Although a Rubio/Cruz unity ticket would be both interesting and unstoppable.