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Dave in Fla returns for his post midterm analysis and argues convincingly that there actually was a red wave, yet which the Democrats were able to blunt, and it wasn’t really by fraud. Plus lots of things to be hopeful about, what needs to be done, and lots more!
Quick comment to avoid confusion. In the podcast I am saying “R+5” and “R+1” incorrectly. What I really mean is that in most districts, Republicans increased their vote share by 8 points to result in R+5. But in other districts, they only increased by 4 points to result in R+1. It is the unevenness of the distribution that shows something is going on. That is unprecedented.
Thanks, DaveinFla. I have been looking forward to this.
Good afternoon, gentlemen. I listed to quite a bit of the discussion, and there is a major flaw in the main theory. It was overt- Democrats can win seemingly whenever they want to, and fail when they don’t use the full range of their capabilities. The further assertion is that none of that is illegal.
Setting aside the exhaustively documented allegations during 2020, let’s focus on a single state- and the Red Wedding that overtook Florida. (I’d rather not call it a tsunami or storm, for obvious reasons.)
1) Charlie Crist is a genuinely terrible candidate, and not really a Democrat in the minds of his own voters. Well, that happens.
2) Ron DeSantis is a relatively popular governor with the support of his base and competent performance in the face of natural disasters. Nothing wrong with that.
3) The Democrats would not cheat, even if they could, because DeSantis would happily throw them in prison ahead of his 2024 run. Sensible, even if illegality has not stopped Democrats in any serious way before.
4) Where the analysis of Florida falls apart is the notion of the Democrats not using their legal methods to produce votes. Assuming ballot harvesting is legal when votes aren’t tampered with- this is undercut by testimony to DeSantis’ own election commission- it’s all the more strange the Democrats had nearly no ground game in Florida. To lose the state that convincingly, while sabotaging their own efforts to even mitigate Republican dominance?
Well, it’s the kind of thing you see with pool sharks, or with fixed boxing matches. The Democrats could have encouraged turnout for Crist in some way, but it’s almost like they wanted DeSantis to run up the score. Which he did, and which would be incredibly impressive if you didn’t look at the raw numbers and the possible reasons for uniquely low turnout in Florida.
My take on everything:
1) Trump is the big elephant in the room, he’s become electoral poison. Non-Trump aligned Republicans did quite well, even in blue and purple states. Candidates that tied themselves to Trump lost bad in easy elections.
2) Republicans have decided the best way to deal with mail-in voting is to pretend it doesn’t exist. We either get rid of it or start exploiting it. I doubt we can rid of it.
3) Abortion did have a huge impact, independents broke in a big way for Dems. Republicans better figure out some middle ground instead of letting the extremists set the agenda.
4) Most depressing, we may have to recognize that we just don’t have a center-right coalition that can cobble together a majority any longer. The “fraud” argument for every time Dems win is just getting ridiculous. It’ snot 1984 anymore where we can win 49 state landslides on that platform.
After a little thought on Dave’s talk maybe it’s down to no motivation to win, just a status quo to line their own pockets and play along as long as we share some power.
Pulling funding, often publicity by Mitch is a stab in the back.
And quite mad a half brain is my Senator who will vote the Marxist line every time he can and do nothing else because his heath is a disaster.
Still contend mail voting will get you fraud every time.
I think you are incorrect about Trump’s influence on races in which Trump-aligned candidates ran. His touch is still powerful (90%+ this election), because he can motivate voters like no one else. But I agree that he also motivates the opposition.
I am unsure of abortion’s impact, but certainly it was used to target certain demographics, and that helped the Democrats.
As for your other points? Yup…no real argument from me!
Dave,
Take a bow.
It was your previous podcast with the boys that kept me from losing my mind this past week
Thanks!
Dave in Fla, I cannot thank you enough for your hard work and insight. Your steady analysis has kept me sane through the last two election seasons. Great job by CBD and JJ as well.
We need to focus on the GA race and get Walker across the finish line. We need to learn the difference between collecting votes and collecting ballots. And we need to support Robert Barnes and Richard Barris in their efforts to save our great nation, for that is what voter and election integrity is all about!
It would help to follow those people if I could hear their name more than once or have it spelled, or (here’s an idea!) links were included in the post. I’d never heard of these people, so I had no idea who you were talking about
I had to listen to that part of the podcast about six times and turn the volume up and make several guesses before I concluded that I found them.
Richard Baris and Robert Barnes
You are correct. I was going to provide links and I simply forgot. But we will be talking about them and others with the same plan a lot in the near future.
We’re going to try and get Baris and or Barnes on the podcast in the near future.
Sounds awesome. I’m sorry I’m kinda cranky today. Flu, you know.
Follow Barnes and Baris where…? I’m seeing What are the Odds, or are there links…?
Did I not hear Dave in Fla say before the election that Oz would be a solid win? If so, what happened that escaped notice in advance? If I’m mistaken, I apologize.
I’m not sure he said “solid,” but he was confident.
Finally got a moment to listen to this today. Setting up a separate organization to support MAGA and MAGA-adjacent candidates with money and (more importantly) boots on the ground to serve as GOTV troops, poll watchers, etc. – should have been done yesterday, but better late than never. I wish Trump had been working on this for the past two years. Curious that he complains endlessly about stolen elections but seemingly did nothing to stop it from happening in the future, right?
Dave in FL, now that it looks like your prediction in this podcast that Kari Lake and Laxalt will win won’t come to pass, do you still think fraud is not a serious problem in these states? Doesn’t the slow rollout of results allow for greater opportunity to cheat? And when are conservatives going to start embedding spies in these Dem organizations in order to smoke out the fraud a la Project Veritas?
Suggestions that there is not fraud doesn’t resonate with me because once again we have reports about up to 30% of voting machines going down on election day in Maricopa county, while the SOS sits on her hands because she knows her race for governor is already fixed.
Laxalt leads in NV by 4%, the counting room cameras go down and 8 hours later when they come back up he is losing. Milwaukee still almost produced enough votes to knock out Johnson, votes out of the air. Has anyone seen the final voting percentage there?
So yes, the GOP needs to work the mail in ballots better, but if we cannot get a vote total the night of the vote, no one is going to believe it. Extreme mail in votes means dems win, all the time. It is statistically impossible for that to be true. In states where ballot control is maintained, dems lose, except in an obvious blue state like NY.
No one said there isn’t any fraud. What we are saying is that the system itself in many states has been legally corrupted to such an extent that it both enables the Left/Dems to gather massive numbers of ballots in a pseudo-legal manner while at the same time creating such confusion and chaos as cover to engage in actual cheating.
It’s semantics to an extent since, for me, the overturning of state election laws which is done via legal/legislative means is itself corruption for the purposes of rigging the game beforehand every time.
On the flip side, the GOP has so far refused to either engage in these now legal tactics nor move to have the laws repealed. Tough if not impossible to do in states that are perhaps forever controlled by the Dems.