CBD and J.J. Sefton are joined by polling and election data guru Dave in FLA to take a deep dive into the Trump victory, the political realignment it signals, and more!
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CutJibNewsletter Speaks: Season 8, Episode 6
Excellent podcast! I just love Dave in Fla’s analysis of the election and the electorate, along with his insights. Coupled with JJ and CBD, what more could you ask? Oh, that’s right – Donald J. Trump, 47th President of the United States, along with republicans controlling Congress! And if you hear a ka-ching in your tip jar, that’s me.
Wonderful podcast – thanks all. So very happy to hear Dave has deepened his faith! You all are good men, thank you for the good work.
Another outstanding podcast, gentlemen. Interesting, entertaining, enlightening, and fascinating, as always. I’m running out of adjectives!
Thanks to Dave in Fla for explaining the numbers and goings on so patiently. My sanity was repeatedly saved and Dave talked me off the ledge, as it were, many times.
Keep up the great work!
From one of Ace commenters (Sorry, didn’t capture who):
A story for this night, about George Washington:
The witches on Reddit saying their hexes aren’t working on Trump due to him being “protected” by something they can’t get through reminds me of a similar story from the French and Indian War.
Red Hawk, famous Chief of the Shawnee, was a legendary marksman. Ruger later named a brand of high-caliber revolver after him. He was said never to have missed a shot with his rifle when it counted.
Well, his men had a run-in with troops led by none other than George Motherfucking Washington. Washington was also famous for fighting on the front lines. This made it ridiculously easy for Red Hawk to spot him and take aim on him.
Red Hawk’s first shot missed.
His second, third, and fourth shots missed.
His fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, and ninth shots missed.
After his tenth shot on Washington missed, Red Hawk called for a retreat. He was convinced that Washington was being protected by God, and there was no way the French/Indian alliance would win that battle.
I checked sources for this, confirmes the history.
I belive the same ‘Devine Providence’ is in play for Donald J Trump.
God Blesses Donald J Trump. God also Blesses Us, and the rest of Planet Earth, as a result.
Dave in Fla, I understand your recent religious sentiments of finding God.
There is much in our universe that is outside our ability to currently comprehend, and God is with us in that.
Bless you and Sefton and CBD and Ace for bringing us together.
Great podcast. As usual I learn a lot from Dave in Fla.
Do any of the three of you really think that black woman voters from 2020 didn’t show up to vote in 2024?
Or do you think as I do that those 2020 black women voters never existed in the first place?
Outstanding. Shows deep data, mechanisms, and explains so much!
Well done.
Dave in FL, you would be a National Treasure if we were Japan.
Good point. But specific demographics are straightforward to count, whereas extra ballots are created from whole cloth and are not linked to specific people. Mail-in ballots are another issue, so my response is…a little of both!
Enjoyed this very much, gents! Thank you.
I do have to add something though – sadly, you are wrong when you say Hispanic women don’t get abortions. They do. My husband prays before an abortion clinic each month and has for years, and says the clientele here in Northern Virginia is mainly Hispanics, I am sorry to say.
Also, the crisis pregnancy centers run by a friend predominantly have Hispanic women come to them. Many times the center is successful in convincing them to keep their baby, but sadly, sometimes they are not. I really wish this were not so.
Dave, so happy to hear you have grown closer to God these last few months! And I have a request for a future post, if you think you could: could you explain more about exit polling? Who does it, where they do it, how they get their results in and to whom, etc. One day in the last two weeks when lots of people were on the thread I asked if any had ever been exit-polled, and only one person said he had, years ago (2008, I think). I’m very curious about it because I don’t know anyone who has ever been asked (and my name is not Pauline Kael, I promise, lol).
Thank you JJ and CBD for continuing to do this, and thank you, Dave, for your valuable insight!
That Kamaunist even won 1 state should be amazing yet alone 230 electoral points.
Maybe, just maybe Melania will make a cover of a glamor magazine but don’t count on it.
Fantastic episode. Hope in a month or so when vote numbers are better shaken out Dave will be back.
Excellent discussion. Enjoyed the give and take re: RFK jr. Very thought provoking. Thank you all.
Dr. Claw – It does appear that this was black women not showing up. The women interviewed had a voter file and a vote history. Keep in mind this is a change of 4-5 percent, which isn’t huge. But it is significant in this demographic.
Bluebell – As with everything, I usually talk in percentages. Of course they do, but as a percentage of the population it is much lower than white and black women. And sure, I can explain exit polling at some point.