Not So Bold Predictions on That Thing in Iowa

Everyone else seems to be making predictions on Iowa, so thought this blog should have some too.

Seeing as I’m technically “working” right now, I’ll have to be brief. No percentages because I hate stats. (Ironically I’m TA-ing a Stats Ethics class right now! I’m the ethics, the professor is the stats.)

  1. Cruz
  2. Rubio
  3. Trump/Paul
  4. Everyone else

 

Paul is the wildcard. He likely has his father’s supporters enough behind him to pull in that apparatus that did so well in 2012. This makes him unpredictable. But keep in mind, Ron Paul won in part by knowledge of caucus procedures and manipulating them. The RNC has standardized caucus rules to fend this off.

Trump could surge to 2nd, but honestly his ground game is awful. I think this puts him at a severe disadvantage. Here’s the rub on that: Trump needs to be first, he’s all in to winning at least 2 of the first 4, with good showings in the other 2. Otherwise his brash “I’m winning” fails.

Even if Rubio is 3rd, don’t count him out. McCain was 4th in 2008 with only about 13% and went on to win NH and lose to Obama.

One comment to “Not So Bold Predictions on That Thing in Iowa”
  1. Pingback: Cut. Jib. Newsletter. | Iowa Caucuses’ job: Winnowing, Or, @realdonaldtrump Doesn’t Get Polls

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