I have been consistent in my denunciation of the tired and discredited idea that American boots on the ground is a reasonable response to Iran’s 47 year war against the West, in particular America and Israel.
Would it work? Probably, especially if it was run by war-fighting generals with a healthy disdain for our previous rules of engagement. A systematic campaign to destroy the IRGC, the Mullahs, and any Iranian armed forces that oppose the operation would be at least moderately successful. But we would lose men, and it just isn’t worth it.
If the Iranian people want freedom from the Mullahcracy, they can fight for it themselves, with offshore assistance from us (and the Israelis). Will they die. Yes, in large numbers, but it is their country, and our responsibility ends with ending Iran’s chokehold on 20% of the world’s petroleum, and its obsessive drive to acquire and use nuclear weapons. That is why we are there. Not the freedom of the Iranian people, no matter how noble a goal it might be.
But it is entirely possible that we will drive the Mullahcracy to ground without having to resort to military efforts beyond the occasional swatting of their anti-ship capacity.
The global demand for petroleum has shrunk slightly, in part in response to the war, in part in response to Europe’s insanity with respect to oil, and in part because of President Trump’s focus on China’s predatory trade policies.
Increased domestic production has contributed to the dampening of oil price shocks, and Venezuela’s reentry into the global petroleum market has improved supplies.
Rerouted shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased Iran’s ability to threaten shipping. They simply can’t reach far enough to hit the southern portion of the strait.
And degraded Iranian military options because of a consistent and successful campaign to destroy their offensive capacity has decreased the probability of a successful strike on shipping or infrastructure.
Iran appears to be losing its grip on the Strait of Hormuz while traffic through the critical waterway has exploded by nearly 400% over the last two weeks — as ships increasingly use a US-backed corridor to cross.
Nearly 200 ships navigated the strait last week, up from 150 the previous week and just 40 two weeks earlier, according to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Center.
The surge brings total traffic along the passage route to about 20% of pre-war levels, through which roughly 20% of the world’s seaborne oil flowed in peacetime.
That’s a good start, and probably an underestimate of the total volume. Because the world has other options, Iran’s power over world commerce has decreased, and will continue to decrease until the Strait of Hormuz is simply not important.
Add the economic sanctions being applied to Iran by our government, ably administered by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, and we have a rational plan to destroy the 47-year-old dictatorship that has been the world’s foremost supporter of militant Islam and its terror attacks. Of course Russia and China are working to subvert our efforts, by supplying arms, and in China’s case by buying Iranian oil. But there just isn’t enough being smuggled to them to make a dent in Iran’s desperate need for cold hard cash!
It will take a long while, and there will be spasms of violence and destruction, but the arc of Iran’s control over the Strait, and Iran’s ability to pursue nuclear weapons is sinking.
All we need to do is stay the course, and don’t declare a premature victory. That might be the toughest part of this whole effort! And yes, I am referring to President Trump and his deals!