Barring something completely unforeseen (otherwise known as “a miracle”) the Iran deal will most certainly be approved by Congress, as the cynic in me has always believed it to be predestined, thanks to Corker-Menendez. For Iran, this means a green light to accelerate its nuclear program (if it doesn’t already have a nuke), essentially unmolested by the United States and Europe as well as its friends in Russia and China.
For Israel, it’s a catastrophe. They are alone, except perhaps with the help of the GCC nations and Saudi Arabia, lacking the military capability for a sustained conventional air campaign against an adversary that has leaned the lessons of Osirak. But most shocking and egregious is that their one-time staunch ally and guarantor of her security for almost 70 years – the United States of America – is now treaty-bound to defend Iran from Israeli attack and sabotage. We are indeed through the looking glass.
According to John Bosma, a former senior adviser to the Reagan administration on arms control, Israel now has no choice but to launch a preemptive strike against Iran – a preemptive nuclear strike.
Following the US’s betrayal of Israel and its de facto detente with Iran, we cannot expect Israel to copy longstanding US doctrines of no-first-nuclear-use and preferences for conventional-weapons-only war plans. After all, both were premised (especially after the USSR’s 1991 collapse) on decades of US nuclear and conventional supremacy. If there ever were an unassailable case for a small, frighteningly vulnerable nation to pre-emptively use nuclear weapons to shock, economically paralyze, and decapitate am enemy sworn to its destruction, Israel has arrived at that circumstance.
The article (hat tip American Thinker) is a very detailed analysis of the political and military situation, and rationale for an Israeli strike. But Mr. Bosma ends with an absolutely chilling statement:
For the US, however, this no-warning nuclear war would land like a thunderbolt on an unprepared White House that would likely panic and lash out as Obama’s loudly touted “legacy” goes up in smoke… Given the psychology of our current president and his emotional investment in his Iran deal, what might follow could challenge the military chain of command with orders that previously were unthinkable.
Assuming this attack occurs some time before January 20th, 2017, how would Obama react? Judging now from almost seven years of his time in office, as well as his personal history since childhood, it is evident that the president has some rather serious personality and/or psychological issues. He’s petulant, egomaniacal, narcissistic to the extreme and cannot handle any form of criticism. And his vindictiveness knows no bounds. Couple all that with his anti-semitism, anti-Americanism and a weltanschauung that is completely divorced from reality and you have the potential for an explosive situation. Even with a fawning media and dishonest academics ready to pen a whopper of an hagiography, this deal as the cornerstone of his legacy, for what it’s worth (and bending over and surrendering to Cuba), is all important to his psyche.
…When these flimsy attempts to patch a tattered personal mythology fail – the narcissist is injured. Narcissistic injury inevitably leads to narcissistic rage and to a terrifying display of unbridled aggression. The pent-up frustration and hurt translate into devaluation. That which was previously idealized – is now discarded with contempt and hatred. –Dr. Shmuel “Sam” Vaknin
How might Obama lash out at Israel for destroying his grand illusion? Considering that he has converted the US military into a vast, insane social experiment and purged the officer corps and the JCS of independent leaders and replaced them with sycophants, and that the “treaty” as it were binds us to defend Iran, would he order some sort of reprisal or military attack on Israel? And would junior officers and the grunts in the trenches (assuming they’re not all Obamabots) actually follow those orders? If that happened, would Israel be forced into firing on American positions to protect its strike force?
Just after Obama was elected, my brother and I had dinner together, and his flair for hyperbole led him to state in no uncertain terms that “this guy is going to bring nuclear war on our heads!” Although I was certainly depressed, I chided him for exaggerating. Looks like the old boy may very well have been prescient.