Not So Bold Predictions Part 3: South Caroline…ah-ah-ah!

Anything anything? OK, bad joke. Fine, whatever.

I’m writing this just before 3CT on Friday. (It won’t post until Saturday all info was current as of then. I don’t plan on making any changes, if I do…well I’ll just change this and y’all will be none the wiser.)

In any case: AND AWAY WE GO:

I don’t know how this Rubio/Cruz mess is going to play out (I had thought a unity ticket was our last best hope, but that’s not happening.)
Trump: 27% (RCP and 538 have him trending down, this isn’t very far off the 538 “polls plus” average)
Rubio 22%
Cruz 20%
(Both trending up, but as I noted, this piss fest makes things interesting)
Kasich 12% (Finds some benefit from the pissfest vs. his “campaign of light”)
Bush 10%
Carson 9%

Although there are rumors about the Bush Campaign being out of money, I think they hold on 3 days until they get stomped in NV caucuses then drop out. (He’d hold until FL except it’s after the SEC primary this year.)
Carson does one more book tour lap then drops prior to SEC primary.
Kasich is the wild card. He might have more megalomania than Bush or Trump actually. However, ultimately the “vision of light” shtick has to end then he’s toast.

5 comments to “Not So Bold Predictions Part 3: South Caroline…ah-ah-ah!”
  1. Well, Trump pulled somewhere in the realm of 35% again with Cruz and Rubio fighting it out for first loser.

    Jeb stood on stage with his bestest bud, Lindsey Graham and dropped out of the race.

  2. True.

    Interestingly though I didn’t overpredict Cruz or Rubio, but overpredicted Jeb, Kasich and Carson (where the difference in what Trump’s vote share and my guess came from.)

  3. Pingback: Cut. Jib. Newsletter. | Can anyone beat Trump in the Primary?

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