Despite what my wife says, I am willing to admit when I am wrong.
That doesn’t mean I won’t make an excuse for it. I was told there would be no Math for the CoB’s on this blog, my problem was ignoring that rule.
Over at The Federalist Sean Davis does some math better than me. My mathematical assumptions for the proportional delegates may have been off the mark. There is a raft of proportional delegate awarding states in early April, but those delegates matter much less than I had thought originally.
I’ve been following FiveThirtyEight’s prediction grids, which in states like MI with lots of polling have been somewhat accurate. What I missed was Rubio’s complete tanking in NC. Combined with his pending loss in FL, he’s an anchor on defeating Trump even with my assumptions that Kasich is going to trade delegates for a VP slot.
Now true as some are pointing out, Rubio’s numbers in FL look different based on Self-ID or voter file. But I’m not sure it’s enough to overcome his deficit. And Rubio is going to pull votes away from Cruz in Missouri, where a Trump fantasy came to life. Rubio will pull just enough votes in Suburban Metro areas that he might upset Cruz’s chances at taking congressional delegates from Trump.
I’m #NeverTrump before anything else, and I’ll take any plan that stops Trump. Right now, I think Cruz is the best plan.
Some people just won’t listen though:
— RBe (@RBPundit) March 10, 2016