It’s all numbers starting today. President Trump can lose Pennsylvania and Michigan and still win the election, squeaking by with 270 electoral votes.
On the other end, if he picks up New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Nevada he will comfortably earn a second term with 326 electoral votes. I think those are the three states most likely to flip. That sure is a pretty map!
But…That first scenario? The one where he just wins? That worries me, because I think that we will also lose the split electoral vote in Maine, and the election will be tied. And then it goes to the House, where they vote by state delegation, and Trump wins again. Unless they tie, in which case it gets weird. The 12 Amendment spells it all out, but if it gets to that our election will be in all likelihood decided by the Supreme Court.
I don’t expect that to happen. I think that President Trump is going to be reelected, based on a few things.
Jack Straw has pointed this out…has anyone ever seen the Republican electorate this engaged and active? And the Democrat electorate this unexcited and passive? Even in my deep blue part of the country, nobody seems enthused or interested by the Biden campaign, and mostly just say, “well, he isn’t Trump.”
Candidate Trump ran in 2016 on a shoestring, taking full advantage of the free publicity provided by an incredulous media. President Trump has crafted an intelligent second campaign which takes full advantage of his own tremendous energy and ability to connect with large crowds, who are in the meantime being registered to vote! There is nothing like having a crowd in which you know people are motivated to participate in the election. They are the easy ones to get registered, and the odds are better that they will vote. That’s smart.
Last, and perhaps most important; America likes a winner. President Trump has had significant policy accomplishments that have directly impacted Americans. He has had undeniable (and pretty damned amazing) foreign policy wins, and he has kept us out of wars.
I think America appreciates that, and the President’s incredibly upbeat and optimistic view of us. He loves America; he loves Americans; and he wants nothing but the best for us. It is an irresistible tone that overwhelms the petty sniping and ankle biting that we get from the shrinking population of NeverTrumpers and the angry, unhinged, and shockingly partisan media.
Oh, one last thing: VOTE!